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Date: 1998-07-31

Netz/wachstum Europa: Fantastillionen für ISPs angesagt


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Prognostizierte zwölf Milliarden Dollar Umsatz im Jahr 2001
gegenüber zweieinhalb 1998 sind wahrhaft gute Nachrichten
für Europas ISPs. Noch besser werden sie durch die
Zusatz/info, dass dieses Geld nicht im mühsamen Consumer/,
sondern im Business/Sektor abzuholen ist.
Weniger gut: Europas ISPs sind nicht drauf vorbereitet, sagt
Forrester Research, weil Kunden/orientierung auf dem alten
Continente noch ein Fremdwort ist.

related story
http://www.news.com/News/Item/0%2C4%2C24789%2C00.html?dd.ne.tx.fs
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AMSTERDAM, Netherlands--(BUSINESS WIRE/NEWSdesk)--July 30,
1998--Demand for Internet access is on the rise throughout
Europe, as businesses expand their use of the Web for
eCommerce and consumers move on-line in greater numbers.
According to a recent Report from Forrester's European
research center, overall access spending in Europe is
expected to climb from $2.5 billion in 1998 to $11.8 billion
in 2001.

Driven by the growth of business-to-business eCommerce in
Europe, business access, not consumer access, will be the
primary source of revenues by 2001. As larger firms pull
their partners on-line and fend off incursions from global
competitors, there will be a surge in demand for new
connections and more bandwidth. The demand from large and
medium-sized firms will generate 77% of business access
expenditures in 2001. In contrast, small businesses, which
account for more than 90% of enterprises in the region, will
stick to simple dial-up accounts, contributing a
considerably smaller share to overall growth.

Meanwhile, consumer spending for access will continue to
grow, but at a slower rate, reaching $4.6 billion in 2001.
The consumer market will be held back by low PC penetration,
high local phone rates, limited provider choice, unreliable
network performance, and a lack of multilingual content on
the Web. This trend will be offset somewhat by a small group
of advanced consumers who will demand -- and pay for --
richer Internet access solutions.

"Today's Internet access landscape is populated by a limited
number of providers offering undifferentiated products and
services," said Joe Sawyer, analyst in Forrester's European
New Media Strategies service. "As businesses and consumers
move onto the Internet in greater numbers, the on-line
population will fragment into several distinct groups. To
succeed, access providers must develop an understanding of
these groups and devise clear strategies that meet their
particular needs."

Large and medium-sized businesses will be served primarily
by multinational telephone companies like WorldCom and
Qwest, with the price, service, and scalability needed to
fulfill the demands of business-to-business eCommerce. In
many countries, Postal Telephone and Telegraph (PTT)
companies will take advantage of their monopolistic legacy
and infrastructure dominance. In other areas, large global
carriers and lean new companies, spawned by liberalization,
will exploit their advantage in price and service to capture
significant shares of the business market.

The telephone companies are also expected to retain their
grip on the entry-level consumer market, in which they enjoy
the benefits of brand recognition and economies of scale.
However, the PTTs will face stiff competition for
bandwidth-hungry consumers from insurgents capable of
delivering faster connections via technologies like cable
modems. Independents, focused on providing the localized and
special-interest content that consumers demand, will also
vie for market share.

"To reach Europe's on-line population, new media companies
need to cultivate existing audiences and expand as demand
grows," added Sawyer. "While telco home pages provide
fertile ground for on-line promotions and partnerships,
firms should avoid exclusive deals that might prevent
distribution via other channels, such as portals. Branded
access offers should be reserved for markets where no
provider has established clear market share or where on-line
adoption is lagging across all groups."

Forrester Research, Inc., is a leading independent research
firm offering products and services that help its clients
assess the effects of technology on their businesses. The
company provides analysis and insight into a broad range of
technology areas such as new media, computing, software,
networking, telecommunications, and the Internet, and it
projects how technology trends will affect businesses,
consumers, and society. Forrester's European research
center, located in Amsterdam, brings the company's unique
perspective to new media developments in Europe. More
information about Forrester can be found on the Web at
http://www.forrester.com.

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published on: 1998-07-31
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